The Competitiveness of the Georgia Governor’s Race

With less than two months to go before the 2018 general election race in Georgia, the battle remains close.

Numerous polls have Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams in a very tight race although most political observers say Kemp is the clear favorite and unless he completely self-destructs will be the next governor of our state.

Polls conducted in 2018 have to be taken with a grain of salt as well. Most, if not all, have a political lean to them. At one time polls were fairly accurate but that was before the two major parties began infiltrating those who do the actual polling.

Most polls in the governor’s race show Kemp and Abrams within five points of each other. Some even show the two in a statistical dead heat. A new poll released over the weekend show the two tied.

Kemp has benefited from a series of television advertisements which have been directed at his base. Using guns and truck and promises of what he will do with illegal immigrants, Kemp pulled a pretty big upset in the GOP primary by defeating Casey Cagle, the current Lt. Governor.

In this state, Republican politics typically favor the “next man up” theory. Cagle, by serving multiple terms as second in command in state politics, was the clear favorite early on. While Kemp is the Secretary of State he was the definite underdog to Cagle. It is a credit to Kemp’s campaign style and approach that he won the primary.

Abrams won the Democratic primary with ease, something which had to be viewed as surprising due to the qualifications of her opponent.

While both candidates have sizeable campaign war chests, money from outside Georgia is pouring into the race and will continue to do so until it is over. There is nothing illegal about this. It has been going on for as long as elections have been held. It certainly could be said those outside the state shouldn’t have a hand in determining who our governor is but that’s the way politics have always been.

If the race between Kemp and Abrams does end up close, the key to the outcome may very well be Libertarian Ted Metz, who continues to campaign under the radar. He is serious about his campaign although few media outlets are taking him as such.

I recently had the opportunity to meet Metz in person and he was very articulate about his positions and what he would do as governor. Like most Libertarians he has been frustrated by a lack of media coverage (beyond social media). The state’s largest newspaper refuses to acknowledge his campaign.

Metz said he is looking forward to the opportunities he will have in coming weeks to be on the same debate stage with his Republican and Democrat challengers.

It should be noted that part of Kemp’s appeal has been his commercials about guns and the second amendment. In reality, the Libertarian Party has always been the most pro-second amendment party. When this was pointed out to a Republican voter recently, the response, while not disputing the Libertarian stance on gun rights, was “I don’t want a Democrat to win so I will vote Republican.”

There have always been those who try to claim that Libertarians hurt Republicans in close races. One Libertarian had the perfect response to that by saying “Republicans take votes from Libertarians.”

Regardless if the battle between Kemp and Abrams is close as some polls indicate, the three or four percentage points drawn by Metz could be important.

Georgians should be prepared for a flood of television and radio ads in the next few weeks leading into the November general election. Early voting begins next month so the election is virtually at hand. While the race is Kemp’s to lose, Republicans should remember that the same was true for Roy Barnes when he lost to Sonny Perdue.

Monticello native Chris Bridges is a long-time newspaper columnist. He welcomes feedback from readers of The Monticello News at pchrisbridges@gmail.com.