Sizing Up The General Election Contest For Governor

There is still some unfinished business in the Republican primary but this year’s general election battle for governor could end up being extremely competitive.

That fact remains true whether Casey Cagle or Brian Kemp ultimately win the GOP nomination. Early voting for that runoff (and a handful of other statewide races) began last week with the main attraction being that race at the top of the ticket. Republican voters are also deciding between runoff candidates for Lt. Governor and Secretary of State while Democratic Party voters are taking care of some unfinished business in the contest for state school superintendent.

The Cagle-Kemp battle has become very tight in recent days. One poll shows the two tied while another shows Kemp, the current Secretary of State, even slightly ahead.

While Cagle, the current Lt. Governor, finished first in the May primary he did not gain the necessary percentage to avoid a runoff and is now in the fight for his political career. His once impressive lead has all but vanished.

The runoff has turned negative although most of what is being highlighted (lowlighted) about both candidates is factual. Turnout will be the key as the overall number of registered voters who actually go back and vote will be small (even less than the disappointing total from May).

Regardless of who wins it’s a safe bet to say that 99 percent of GOP voters will vote for the ultimate nominee. Loyalty to political parties is very large right now and that will certainly be the case here. No one can truthfully believe that a disgruntled Kemp or Cagle supporter would vote for Democrat Stacey Abrams in November. There could be a few who decide to vote for Libertarian Ted Metz but not many.

In fact, the few percentage points the Libertarian picks up in the general election race for governor could end up being the difference. Most assume that Libertarians only draw votes from the Republican candidate but in reality that is not true.

Libertarians are actually a mix between Republicans (fiscal issues, gun rights, etc.) and Democrats (personal freedom) on the issues.

A fellow Libertarian once told me, “Republicans are right about some issues but they don’t go far enough. Democrats are right on some issues but they fail to support those issues the way they truly should.”

Meanwhile Abrams has state Democratic leaders excited. They believe she could pull an upset and be the next governor. While the race certainly has the potential to be close (in the 55-45 percent) range it doesn’t seem likely that the demographics in Georgia has moved enough for it to happen.

It’s not that Republicans should take the race for granted. Any favored candidate (or political party in this case) should always campaign as if he or she were 20 points behind. The state of Georgia had some surprising vote totals from the 2016 presidential election.

While Donald Trump won Georgia and its electoral voters, there were certain areas of the state where Hillary Clinton actually did far better than any political observer would have predicted.

The challenge for Abrams will be to energize not only her base but those who may not typically pay much attention to statewide politics. An upset is possible here (actually more possible than Sonny Perdue’s defeat of Roy Barnes) and Abrams’ somewhat surprisingly easy primary victory against a solid challenger shows Democratic voters believe she is the perfect candidate to end the GOP domination of the state.

But we need to take first things first in the race for governor. The Cagle-Kemp runoff is a tossup. Abrams is already off and running on her general election campaign and Metz is hoping to someone get a mention in the news about his campaign.

We’ll no doubt see a flood of money poured into our governor’s race from outside groups (all except for Metz). Also, get ready for some nasty commercials pointing out the negative of both the GOP and Democratic candidates.

This is something which will be fun to watch in some ways and stomach-turning in others.

Monticello native Chris Bridges is a long-time newspaper columnist. He welcomes feedback about this column from readers of The Monticello News at pchrisbridges@gmail.com.