The Art Of Predicting An Upset

For as long as I can remember I have always pulled for the underdog.

It’s true in all walks of life but especially true when it comes to sports. If a team is told it has no chance to win then you can rest assured I am hoping against hope it finds a way to prove everyone wrong. On occasion, it does happen and I think that’s a big part of what makes sports so special to watch.

Perhaps the biggest upset in college football came during the 2007 season when Appalachian State defeated Michigan in the season opener for both teams. It was a game few, if any, predicted an upset was possible even though there were signs we should have perhaps seen the possibility.

Appalachian State was the two-time defending I-AA champion and was primed to make a run at a third consecutive title. Michigan, despite being highly ranked in the preseason, had been underachieving for some time.

The Mountaineers rolled into the “Big House” that day fully believing they could win, even if none of the experts thought it was remotely possible. They were one of the first teams at the time to run the spread offense and were very effective at doing it.

For upsets of this nature to be possible there often has to be a perfect storm of events take place. All of that happened that day at Michigan and it’s as if the Wolverine players, coaches and fans never saw it coming.

Appalachian State returned most of its key players from the season before and the Mountaineers were the top team in I-AA. Today you often hear coaches in I-A say they would rather play a team that struggles in their own level than one that is used to winning at the division a notch down.

Despite having the entire offseason to prepare, it seemed Michigan was completely unprepared to play Appalachian State. It’s certainly possible the Wolverine mindset was one of “we can win by simply having more athletes” than our opponent. In fact, after the game was played some Michigan players admitted they had never even heard of Appalachian State.

While that works some of the time, it’s never a sure-fire plan to victory.

As the game unfolded it became evident that this was not going to be a walk in the park for the highly-favored home Michigan team. As the game moved into the fourth quarter, one wondered if depth might become a factor that would work against Appalachian State.

If anything, I think the Mountaineers took their foot off the pedal once they got a lead. After Michigan rallied late in the fourth quarter to move in front, Appalachian State went back to playing the style of football that had been so successful earlier in the game and put together a late scoring drive.

Still, a game like this had to have a story-book ending and Michigan somehow found itself in a position to kick a game-winning field goal on the final play. Appalachian State blocked that attempt, however, and almost ran it back for a touchdown (it didn’t matter that Michigan prevented the touchdown because the Mountaineers were already the victors.)

As we get set for the 2017 season, one has to wonder if Appalachian State, now competing at the I-A level, is set for another upset, this time in Athens, Ga. The Mountaineers, who took Tennessee to overtime in the 2016 season opener and in all reality should have won the game, will have that chance to shock the Bulldog faithful this time around.

While many UGA fans are rightfully cautious about this game, there are still others who don’t understand just how solid of a team Appalachian State will put on the field in a few weeks. Many Bulldog fans are thinking of the game with Notre Dame the following week and are assuming that the season opener will be a sure win.

After Georgia failed to live up to expectations (however unrealistic) in 2016, a loss would have some faithful jumping off the cliff after game one in 2017.

One thing I know for sure: an upset in Athens will be no where as surprising as the one that took place at Michigan several seasons ago.

Other 2017 week one upset possibilities: James Madison defeats East Carolina and Eastern Washington over Texas Tech in a game where the scoreboard operator will stay busy all day.

Monticello native Chris Bridges is a long-time newspaper columnist. He welcomes feedback from readers of The Monticello News at pchrisbridges@gmail.com